← 11/23 新莊貓 Mortal Ambition Regionals 北部場
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at 11/23 新莊貓 Mortal Ambition Regionals 北部場
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.5% | 8 | 2-5-1 | 31.2% | 37.5% | 43.8% | -3.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 60.3% | +6.6 |
| Fire Exia | 7.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.0% | +12.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.5% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 60.4% | +6.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.0 |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 44.8% | -3.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.9% | -6.1 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 56.6% | +4.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.0% | +8.7 |
| Wind Tera Mage | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.0 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Water Allies | 1.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.3% | -12.2 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.9% | +5.1 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Frostbind, Revitalizing Cleanse, Torpid Fractal. Losers more often ran: Ravishing Finale, Tidal Lock, Fractal of Intrusion.
Show all 42 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 29 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ravishing Finale | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Tidal Lock | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Torpid Fractal | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glacial Guidance | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Water Barrier | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Spirit of Water | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Hailstorm Guard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Polar Depths | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |